三公开船:CPO futures likely to see profit-taking activities next week

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KUALA LUMPUR: The crude palm oil (CPO) futures contract on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives is likely to trend lower next week on profit-taking activities.

Interband Group of Companies senior palm oil trader Jim Teh said stocks are expected to remain high in Malaysia due to Indonesia’s lower Indonesian export prices.

"As such, the price movement next week is expected to confine between RM3,100 and RM3,300 per tonne,” he told Bernama.

Indonesia is trying to clear their high inventories by waiving its export levy, effective July 15 to Aug 31, 2022.

Meanwhile, palm oil trader David Ng expects futures prices to trade with a downside bias given the expectation of higher production and stock level ahead of the key crop report due to be released next week.

For the trading week just ended, Malaysian CPO futures were mostly lower, weighed by strong competition from lower Indonesian export prices and higher inventory concerns in the coming weeks.

According to CGS-CIMB Securities Sdn Bhd, Malaysia’s CPO output is expected to grow by 2.8 per cent month-on-month (m-o-m) and 4.3 per cent year-on-year to 1.59 million tonnes in July 2022.

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It also said Malaysia’s palm oil stocks are estimated to rise by 9.8 per cent m-o-m to 1.82 million tonnes as at the end of July 2022, mainly due to higher output.

On a Friday-to-Friday basis, spot month August 2022 shed RM10 to RM4,020 a tonne, September 2022 was RM36 lower at RM3,923 a tonne and October 2022 was down RM79 to RM3,878 a tonne.

November 2022 slid RM100 to RM3,879 a tonne, December 2022 decreased RM66 to RM3,913 a tonne and January 2023 declined RM123 to RM3,966 per tonne.

Total volume expanded to 336,919 lots from 295,872 lots in the previous week, while open interest narrowed to 195,371 contracts from 215,234 contracts previously.

The physical CPO price for August South rose by RM50 to RM4,050 a tonne. - Bernama


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